Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on Taiwan | 李光耀资政谈台湾局势
- November 30th, 2010
- By Samuel Ma
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adapted from Wikipedia
extracted from guardian.co.uk
Taiwan
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11. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked MM Lee for his assessment of Taiwan. MM Lee said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position, which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.
12. (C) In this context, MM Lee said, Hu could live with Ma’s positions on the ‘92 consensus and on not addressing the reunification issue during his term in office. What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the U.S. fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is what they want, MM Lee said.
13. (C) MM Lee stated that the alternative is Mainland investment in Taiwan stocks and property. The Mainland has already assured Hong Kong that it will help out economically. The Mainland has not said this to Taiwan, but the Mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Director, Wang Yi, did urge Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan. In four years Taiwan’s economy will pick up and Ma will win re-election. The DPP lacks strong potential candidates. Su Zhen-chang is promising, but seems unlikely to be able to win. Meanwhile, even the traditionally DPP-supporting farmers in Taiwan’s South need China’s market for vegetables and other products. Taiwan’s continued participation in the World Health Assembly depends on Beijing. Beijing’s calculation seems to be to prevent Taiwan independence in the near term, then bring Taiwan “back to China,” even if it takes 40 or 50 years. MM Lee said he is looking forward to visiting Fujian Province, where preparations are underway for a new southern economic area linked with Taiwan.
中文译文（由本人翻译，转载请务必注明出处）：
台湾
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11. (C) 副国务卿史坦伯格（Steinberg）请李资政评估台湾的局势。李资政表示，前总统陈水扁把台湾的经济陷入薄弱的局面，而这也使马英九通过保证与大陆扩大三通等方面的合作来强化台湾经济，成功夺取政权。在北京，前主席江泽民和他的“江八点”方针绑在一起，但胡锦涛主席比较灵活。江希望在他有生之年解决台湾问题来显示他是一位伟大领袖，但胡比较有耐心，并不寻求在他有生之年解决台湾问题。在中国国内政治中，胡希望来自共青团的副总理李克强成为他的接班人，而不是副主席习近平。不过胡算了算账，发现习拥有党内其他人给予的必要支持，最终接受了习作为接班人。同样的，在台湾问题上，胡是比较实际的。对于胡来说，花10年、20年、30年都不是问题。关键是与台湾发展关系。至于香港，必要的话，这个水龙头会被关闭。
12. (C) 在这个背景下，李资政说，胡可能在他的任期内，对马的“九二共识”默认，并不触及同一问题。胡最关切的，就是台湾不要寻求独立。如果台湾宣布独立，中国有1000枚导弹，而且还在增加数量来防止远处的美国舰队靠近。李资政说，台湾领导人无疑需要面对的问题就是，这是否是他们所要的。
13. (C) 李资政表示，另一解决方案是陆企赴台投资股市和房地产。大陆已向香港保证，它将会在经济上帮助香港。尽管大陆尚未对台湾这样表态，但国台办主任王毅有鼓励陆企赴台投资。4年后台湾的经济会好转，马英九会连任。民进党缺乏强势的候选人。苏贞昌很有前途，但好像不会赢得选举。同时，连传统上支持民进党的台湾南部的农民都需要将蔬菜销往大陆市场。台湾是否能持续参与世界卫生组织，取决于北京。北京的计划似乎是在近期防止台湾独立，并让台湾“回归祖国”，哪怕是四五十年后。李资政说他很希望访问福建省，那里正在建设一个新的和台湾相连的南方经济区。
